23-Apr-2025 07:30 PM
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Dhaka, Apr 23 (Reporter) The World Bank has lowered Bangladesh's economic growth projection to 3.3% in the current fiscal, down from its January forecast of 4.1 percent due to the political uncertainty and persistent financial challenges facing the country.
In its latest South Asia Development Update, the World Bank also warned the 12-month average inflation in the country could hit 10 percent in FY25.
"This primarily reflects the disruptions arising from last summer's social unrest and political tensions. It also reflects the trade disruptions, the persistence of inflation, worsening bank health, governance challenges, and general uncertainty about the country's political future, all of which will contribute to an expected decline in investment," it said.
The World Bank's growth outlook for the current fiscal year stands out as the gloomiest among other recent forecasts.
This comes a day after the International Monetary Fund predicted 3.76 percent growth of Bangladesh's gross domestic product for the current fiscal year, and the Asian Development Bank’s projection of 3.9%, according to The Daily Star.
In its South Asia Development Update released today, the WB attributed the overall deceleration in the first three quarters of FY25 to a sharp decline in private and public investment.
It noted that political violence, curfews, and internet shutdowns severely disrupted economic activity in the first quarter.
Private investment growth is likely to remain constrained through the rest of the year due to global trade disruptions, high input and borrowing costs, and continued domestic policy uncertainty, it added.
This comes as Bangladesh is already in a massive economic turmoil, due to rising inflation, lack of private sector investments due to the security situations, slow manufacturing, and disruptions in the country’s textile sector – its financial mainstay.
However, it has anticipated a recovery in the fiscal year 2025-26, although growth has been downgraded to 4.9 percent, reflecting lower investor confidence and macroeconomic pressures.
The latest South Asia Development Update, Taxing Times, projects regional growth to slow to 5.8 percent in 2025—0.4 percentage points below October projections—before ticking up to 6.1 percent in 2026. This outlook is subject to heightened risks, including from a highly uncertain global landscape, combined with domestic vulnerabilities including constrained fiscal space.
“Multiple shocks over the past decade have left South Asian countries with limited buffers to withstand an increasingly challenging global environment,” said Martin Raiser, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. “The region needs targeted reforms to strengthen economic resilience and unlock faster growth and job creation. Now is the time to open to trade, modernize agricultural sectors, and boost private sector dynamism...////...